Call it fatigue.. call it New Years blaahhhgs.. call it laziness.
The meat of the matter is that I just haven’t felt compelled to blog recently. Th news lately has been particularly uninspiring. The Ukraine and Russia… in a tiff over gas delivery at market prices… threatened to destabilize gas supplies for a large part of Europe… oil and gas prices go up.. peak oil’s spectre draws a little closer.
Russia and Iran… meeting to figure out what to do with Irans nuclear enrichment program… but not much is really expected from it. Iran will continue to pursue nuclear technology no matter what, their oil fields have peaked, and they know it. So they’d rather sell their remaining oil (to China and India) and have nuclear power for their citizens (and a bomb for their enemies). The only thing we don’t know is how the western powers, and Israel will react.
Ariel Sharon. Likely on his deathbed. And with it perhaps this round of optimism for a solution in Israel and Palestine. For all his many many many faults, Sharon is the only Israeli leader to have actually given back Palestinian territory. That says a lot. With him gone, and an election forthcoming… I don’t think anyone knows what’s going to happen.
Iraq… still a quagmire… now “a high chance for all out civil war“. Nobody predicted that (*snort*). The UK wants out. The US wants out (but won’t admit it) and will now get out without paying for rebuilding. The Iraqis don’t know what they want… welcome to “representative” government… please pass the AK-47.
Global Climate Change. Still happening. Still being ignored. 2005 was the 2nd warmest year on record. Ice roads in Northern Alberta, Canada are thawed.. the Northwest Passage is opening for business. Yet Canada still pumps tons of CO2 into the atmosphere at a rate worse than the United States. But hey.. at least Canada is willing to lie about their contribution to the problem… and put on a brave face right?
Canadian Election… 2 weeks to go. The Conservatives are now leading in the polls, including a few ridings in Quebec. Barely… will they hold on? Are the polls correct? Will the Liberals be decimated ala Mulroney, by a Conservative/NDP pairing? Will a Conservative Minority last more than 2 months?
Welcome to 2006 everyone. It’s more of the same…. but the screws are tightened down just a little tighter… and my head is pounding just a little harder.
Here’s a question for you people out there…
What will be the overriding news item of 2006?
Last Year it was the price of oil, Hurricanes/Weather/Climate Change, and Iraq
Notice I didn’t mention the bombings in London? They weren’t at the top of my mind… were they on yours?
Will Al Qaeda pull off another major attack in the US? Does it matter?
Personally… I think oil and gas prices, supplies and demand will be the ongoing and overriding story of 2006 because everything ties into it. Gazprom/Russia will continue to flex it’s monopolistic muscle in the former Soviet Bloc and Europe. Iran will threaten to cut off or blockade oil shipments from the Middle East. Iraq will still not reach it’s pre-Invasion output of oil for more than days at a time. Saudi Arabia will (or will be forced to) finally admit that their production has peaked. Venezuela, Iran, Bolivia, and Cuba will form a new “Axis of Oil” trading in Euros and threatening US Oil imports and foreign debt. OPEC will admit they cannot raise production any higher. The US Economy will start to feel the pinch of limited oil supplies and limited cash… the monthly oil related stock market drops will turn into weekly events… which is actually a good thing. It will spare us a huge crash.
2006 will be the warmest year on record. There will be fewer hurricanes, however, two Category 4 or 5 hurricanes will impact the US… further disrupting oil/gas/refinery flow. Plans to drill in ANWR will again be pushed through Congress, but fail as more US lawmakers realise it is not the answer.
As I saw on another prediction site (I think it was the BBC) the most important event of 2006 will be the one that nobody can predict. Be it a terrorist attack or natural disaster… these things happen. However, the difference in 2006 will be the vunerability of the world at large and the worlds economy to the slightest of shocks. With oil and gas supply and demand running on a razor thin margin, it won’t take much to make a big impact on your lives and mine.
Wow.. I think that’s the most pessimistic I have ever been…