Looks like Tony Blair is well on his way to victory. The BBC has an excellent website up showing live results as they come in across the UK (remember it’s the middle of the night there now!).
It is still early, Labour still hasn’t quite reached the the magic number of 324 seats needed for the majority. But there is no doubt they will reach it.
The question will be, how big will that majority be. Everyone seems to be predicting major shrinkage (sorry, couldn’t resist). The BBC’s site is reporting a 3.2% “Swing” in votes from Labour to Conservatives. That could add up to some pretty major gains in seats depending on how the vote is distributed.
In 2001, Labour won 413, Conservative 166, and Lib Dem 53.
I’ll try to keep an eye on it and post more later. Otherwise, enjoy the horse race!
Update
I just realised something. Anyone else ever notice that in the UK (and Canada), the ‘Liberal’ party is Red and the ‘Conservative’ party is Blue (and actually the “more left” party, Lid Dem and NDP, are Yellow/Orange.) Yet in the United States the “Red” states are the Conservative/Repub ones and the “Blue” states are Democrat.
Silly Americans always gotta be different. 😉
Update 2
Smash, of LT-SMASH just corrected me… apparently the red/blue thing switches. Not sure why. Funny, for a two party system, it’s pretty damn complicated to figure out, eh? Compensating maybe? 😉
Onto more serious matters… As of right now (9PM PST), Labour has crossed the majority threshold… but only barely… the Conservatives have already surpassed their seat total from 2001! The Lib Dems have exactly the same number as 2001, 53 seats… and it’s still very very early, so they can easily surpass their seats.
This is looking more and more like a major slap in the face to Tony Blair… we’ll see how it plays out over the next 5 or 6 hours. I wish I could stay up to watch it play out.
Update 3
The past half hour has been big for the Lib Dems as they surpassed their 2001 totals by 3 and continued the downward spiral of Labour… now down 40.
The most surprising result isn’t just that Labours majority is shrinking vast, but also Labour has not gained a single seat that it held in 2001. 44 seats lost and counting…
Their majority is a paltry 19 seats right now. Their projected seats stand at around 355… that’s down over 50 seats from 2001.
It looks like Iraq was definitely an issue and the Lib-Dems made gains because of it… in all, it looks like the UK Parliament will be an interesting place over the next 4-5 years.
I just realised something. Anyone else every notice that in the UK (and Canada), the “Liberal” party is Red and the “Conservative” party is Blue (and actually the “more left” party, Lid Dem and NDP, are Yellow/Orange.) Yet in the United States the “Red” states are the Conservative/Repub ones and the “Blue” states are Democrat.
Not exactly. The convention in the US (set by the major television networks several years ago) is that every election they switch the color (red or blue) which represents the incumbent party. So in 2004, the incumbents (Republicans) were “red,” but in 2000 the incumbents (Democrats) were “blue.” But back in 1996, the Democrats were “red” and the Republicans “blue.” And so on.
I did not know that… interesting… so it’s even MORE confusing!
You know, for a two party system you sure make as comlicated as possble don’t you. 😉
Thanks for the correction though.
Hey,Chris, even Canadians can’t keep track of all your political parties federal and provincial. I don’t even try at a few attempts. My best friend (an American) spends 6 months of every year on the Queen charlotte Islands and she says her Canadian friends claim they are as confused by Canadian politics as she is. You even have to post an instructive blog every now and then to help potential Canadian voters understand what the heck is goin’ on. So there too! 🙂
Heheh.. the Queen Charlottes eh? I’m amazed they even vote up there. 😉 The Haida nation runs the place (or at least they should) I’d consider them a lot better than what the rest of us in Canada have to deal with. 🙂
I admit our politics can be seem pretty confusing and that turns people off… they don’t feel the need to take interest. Too much work. That’s why i think the referendum on proportional representation will fail miserably.
If people actually understood what STV was and how it changes the system I’m sure that the vast majority of people would vote Yes. But right now everyone just thinks “oh, that’s that really complicated counting thing? I don’t want that.”
Hopefully one day there will be more public interest in politics.
Well, to your credit, if you say the change would be good, I’d probably vote for it if I were allowed. Maybe if the change went through then you wouldn’t have so much to explain to your less politically minded friends, eh?
If the voting system changed to STV I think it would actually lead to people knowing a little more about politics… if only because when they voted, if they wanted to get the “most” out of their vote they would need to at least do a little research on each candidate so that they didn’t just put 1, 2, 3 down arbitrarily.
Of course.. I’m sure there are plenty of people who simply close their eyes as they mark the X on their ballot now. So maybe a change in system wouldn’t change them. 🙂