I read this at ADBOI and just rolled my eyes.
Here we go again….
A commission due to report to President Bush this month will describe American intelligence on Iran as inadequate to allow firm judgments about Iran’s weapons programs, according to people who have been briefed on the panel’s work.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, which has been conducting inspections in Iran for two years, has said it has not found evidence of any weapons program. But the agency has also expressed skepticism about Iran’s insistence that its nuclear activities are strictly civilian.
In its report, the panel is also expected to be sharply critical of American intelligence on North Korea. But in interviews, people who have been briefed on the commission’s deliberations and conclusions said they regarded the record on Iran as particularly worrisome.
Among the major setbacks, former intelligence officials have said, was the successful penetration in the late 1980’s by Iranian authorities of the principal American spy network inside the country, which was being run from a C.I.A. station in Frankfurt. The arrests of reported American spies was known at the time, but the impact on American intelligence reverberated as late as the mid-1990’s.
Now, I’m sure were we faced with another situation at the UNSC like before the Iraq war except with Iran in its’ place… the outcome could be different. This is not because Europe is any more willing to support military action, nor because Iran is being any more cooperative than Iraq.
The difference is that there are known Nuclear facilities on the ground in Iran. Many of them… and their designation as being required and used only for electricity generation is pretty suspect coming from one of the largest oil producers in the world.
I don’t think there is any doubt that Iran wants to have nuclear weapons. With Israel, Pakistan, India, and the US Army on its’ doorstep, why wouldn’t it?
The problem is always proving those accusations and providing concrete evidence to support serious action.
If the US wants to get UN or NATO support for military action against Iran, it is going to have to provide examples of both the Iranian governments plans for their military-grade Nuclear program as well as concrete targets that constitute the bulk of that nuclear capability.
It seems that, once again, the CIA is failing in providing that information.
And that’s only going to make it harder for the Bush Adminstration to make its’ case against Iran.