There is one week to go before the US election. No matter what poll you use the race is a statistical dead heat. Electoral Vote.com is now showing Bush as leading in enough states that he would win the election… however he points out some interesting irregularities in polling.
Six new polls in Florida show Kerry leading in 1 poll, Bush leading in 3 polls, and two being exact ties. Excluding the Gallup poll for the moment, the average of the other five polls (Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, Strategic Vision, Survey USA, and Zogby) is Kerry 47% and Bush 48%, a statistical tie. The Gallup poll shows Bush ahead 51% to 42%, giving Bush a lead far outside the margin of error. Could Gallup be right and everyone else wrong?
It really doesn’t matter if Gallop is right or wrong. Even though they show Bush as being solidly ahead in that crucial state… the discrepancy with all the other polls calls their poll into question. How can we know what the real answer is? Well, I’ll give you the real answer.
No one can predict what will happen next Tuesday. No one.
There are simply too many variables.
What if all the newly registered voters decide not to vote after all? What if they do?
What impact will the ex-pat vote have on the election? What about the military?
Will the effort to get out the poor and black/minority vote succeed? This was a huge controversy in Florida in 2000.
What will happen with voting machines? Will there be more hanging chads? Will paperless voting be deemed illegal because there is no way to do a recount?
And finally… the point that I’m sure every pundit out there has in their back of the mind but which has been studiously avoided as a topic of conversation.
What if there is a terrorist attack on or just before the Election?
There was some talk of this back in July. What would the government do. Delay voting day? Who knows.
I’d rather not speculate on whether an attack is imminent or not… but should it happen I think the reaction from the public would be clear and decisive. They would vote in record numbers, and they would vote for Bush.
If you were an Islamic extremist looking for a way to ensure that you have plenty of recruits over the coming years, who would you rather have in the White House?
I know my answer.. what’s yours?