John Robb, of Global Guerrilas, has a warning.
Osama bin Laden offered a truce to America last month. This is a religiously mandated action prior to an attack. We should anticipate that new attacks on US targets will occur soon.
Robb studies International Terrorism and seems to have a very good grasp of how terrorists networks work, and why they work the way they do.
Unfortunately, he’s no psychic… and one of his main points is this…
The timing, target, and nature of the next strategic attack on the US is shrouded in uncertainty. Its arrival will be a black swan — an unexpected event that can’t be anticipated with any degree of assurance. A black swan is a unpredictable event that defies prediction.
If you “think like a terrorist”… with all thei9r media saavy, opportunistic abilities… his post starts to simply look like common sense:
Any potential symbolic terrorist attack that is less impressive than 9/11 will be a devastating blow to the moral momentum of the attacker. The diminishing returns from symbolic terrorism dictate this.
His conclusion? Another 9/11 is not likely… but it’s a black swan, so it would be completely unpredictable by definition anyway… he sees the terrorists using tactics that we have seen employed around the world, in Iraq, Russia, in Nigeria. These attacks will be against infrastructure. Oil, natural gas, and electrical hubs and infrastructure. There are thousands of miles of unprotected pipeline and grids in North America that could be attacked without anyone seeing anything. This would make finding the culprits much more difficult… and also require for less in the way of supplies.
North America is basically one economy, that means Canada is just as much of a target as the United States, if not more. We supply huge amounts of oil, and nearly all the Natural Gas that the United States consumes. Hydro-Quebec supplies the North East US with electricity and BC Hydro sells power to California.
There is no doubt in my mind that an attack *could* happen, in the US or Canada. There are points of weakness throughout the lower-48, Canada and especially Alaska and the North.
If the attacks were carried out in Canada, not only would the economic impact be bad… but what about the political fallout? Would all Americans see Canada as the Great White Danger Zone or would they realise that an unexpected attack is just that…
My point is this… Robb seems to think that the next attacks will be on the economy. Which means Canada is a prime target. If an attack, or series of attacks, are successful, then the results could be devastating not only to the Canadian and American economies, but also to the relationship between our two nations. What we see now as “tension” between our nations is really just a spat between long time friends. SOmething that will no doubt blow over in time. But, by my own observations.. I think the emotional state of the American people (especially on the Right) is so fragile, that any perceived “threat” from Canada could be very detrimental to both our economic and social well being.
All we can do is wait…unfortunately, it seems that this is an inevitable event. We are simply left to guess at the result.