CIBC World Markets: Conventional Oil peaked in 2004

Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets is reported by the CBC as saying “conventional oil production around the world apparently peaked in 2004.”

If anyone can find Jeff Rubins actual words, I’d greatly appreciate it… barring that, here’s what the CBC paraphrased.

Rubin does expect a net gain in oil production in coming years, but it will be small and getting smaller.

He expects 1.5 million barrels of new oil in 2006 and 2007, but less than a million barrels a day in 2008.

In 2004, world oil consumption was over 80 million barrels a day. I don’t have data at my fingertips for 2005… but with the rise of China and India, no doubt it has increased. With less than 1 million barrels of new oil in 2008 to act as a “buffer” between” production and consumption… will it be enough? One thing is for sure if this is true, prices will continue to rise… and if Mr. Rubin’s predictions are even slightly too optimistic, the World will officially be on the downhill slope of Global oil production.

What that means for the world economy is yet to be seen…

I’ve passed this link on to the good people at The Oil Drum in the hope that they use their seemingly vast knowledge and access to hard numbers to put this into a more concrete light. If they do make a post, I’ll be sure to update this link, and likely add a followup of my own.

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