Iran: the next Ukraine-esque Revolution?

Regime Change Iran has a very interesting report today of a recent poll in Iran.

The PeopleÂ’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) said in a press release that a survey of 1,730 adults eligible to vote showed that 92 percent of voters intend to boycott the elections. The survey was based on interviews conducted between May 27 and May 30, 2005.

The regime fears a turnout less than 40% will lead the world to consider the election illegitimate. They do not want to see an Iranian version of what occurred in the Ukraine.

It looks like the Regimes fears could come to fruition… and hopefully for the rest of the world and for all Iranians, they do. This action by the Iranian people should not be underestimated. The Iranian regime has access to a wide range of military and para-military forces that could and likely would be used to crush any massive uprising. But given the almost unanimous discontent with the regime, it is likely that at least some elements of those military forces will side with the population.

There have been ongoing protests, largely by students (the 18-35 age group is by far the largest and most progressive in Iran) but so far they have been largely contained to University grounds.

The Election happens next week on June 8.

Keep an eye on Iran.

10 thoughts on “Iran: the next Ukraine-esque Revolution?”

  1. Bush should get smart and finally leave Iran alone.

    The best political change comes from within.

    It’s meddling in Iran by superpowers, especially the U.S., that radicalized Iran in the first place.

  2. Based on both your recommendations, the Iranian invasion is cancelled. Glad you both spoke up. Otherwise, who knows how insane the US’s Iranian policy would continue to be. Your political acumen is invaluable. Absolutely.

    But seriously, even we stupid Americans are aware that forces within Iran are growing for a new more modern and secular government to be formed and that more than likely, unless the mullahs drop a nuke on Israel, the Iranians themselves will use political power to change their country all by themselves.

    Of course, you are absolutely correct in your assessment that American influence and example of a free society and democratically elected government is negligible in all cases we’ve seen lately of people expressing the desire for a free society. It’s obvious that our way of life is not appreciated around the world. Oh wait, then why are so many people “dieing” to get here? All enlightened leftists or liberals, as you like to call yourselves, know that America is evil and backward. Could that be the attraction for immigrants, legal or illegal? Naw. They just want in here so they can live in a squalid police state with no possibility of escaping economic empoverishment.

  3. So are you just choosing to ignore the fact that this process of reform has been ongoing in Iran for a decade? (ie. before Bush declared he was the bringer of Freedom and Democracy to the unwashed masses)

  4. Did I say that? Read my comment again. I said that even we ignorant Americans recognize that Iran may have a chance to change their government due primarily to their own internal political calls and force for reform. I see little in our current efforts to deal with Iran that spell “invasion” or “war”. You see the American bogey man everywhere. Chill.

    I merely state that America has always been the ultimate example of people under tyranny to look at for inspiration
    and the hope of their own freedom. Ask the eastern European countries that lived under Russian domination for 50 years. The thought of a free American society kept them going for years. If you want to deny that, you merely relish the state of denial and seem petty to the extreme. Sometimes I think Canadians are the most naive people on the planet. Sheeze. Get a clue. I’ve read all your desperate explanations that prove conclusively that nothing good that’s happening in the ME of central Asia is the result of American influence. Imagine that, a “super power” that has no influence. Astounding. I guess the ultimate oxymoron, eh?

  5. No jane. It’s not naivete. What I and others find astonishingly arrogant is when Americans like yourself claim to have had a huge influence on every single democratic movement in the world simply because America is, well, America.

    It’s as if you’re unwilling to give these people the respect that maybe, just maybe, they’re doing it because they, like all human beings, crave freedom and prosperity and despise tyranny. Maybe they’re doing it to better their own lives, not mold their existing lives to fit your mold of “freedom”. Yes of course the United States has supported many democratic movements in the past, but it is the people that change the nation.

    It’s the lack of humility that really bugs me. I’m sure that it is true that many people look up to America as a shining example of freedom and democracy, as they should, but as Americans, show some humility and class and accept the compliment without expecting or requiring it.

  6. You completely mischaracterize the American attitude as arrogance. I say you see a reflection of your own Canadian arrogance You gloat all the time about Candadian superiority in many areas. You guys are steeped in a national inferiority complex which motivates you to scorn all American accomplishments. It’s sad that you are so envious, scornful, petty and arrogant yourselves.

    By acknowledging that America has in some way inspired others to fight for and demand freedom, is not this

    “What I and others find astonishingly arrogant is when Americans like yourself claim to have had a huge influence on every single democratic movement in the world simply because America is, well, America.”

    All this exists in your mind, Chris. It calls up images of Americans high fiving each other over Lebananese demands for the withdrawal of Syrian occupiers, demands for an uncorrupted election in the Ukraine, etc, etc.

    “It’s as if you’re unwilling to give these people the respect that maybe, just maybe, they’re doing it because they, like all human beings, crave freedom and prosperity and despise tyranny.”

    My reaction to examples of a demand for democracy by people living under tyranny is one of a lump in my throat and a tear on my cheek. I cheer for such people and take a measure of happiness that my country had a maybe a small part to play in the process going on. Sometimes just a little encouragement is the spark that sets off the fire for freedom. And yes, I’m proud tht my country still after two hundred years is standing on this planet as an example of a successful experiment in a democratic form of government that encourages other people to establish something similar for themselves. When Canada does does something good, aren’t you proud? Yeah, you are. Well so am I. If that makes me arrogant then you need therapy.

    Your problem is you are determined to denigrate our country and work very hard at providing daily evidence that we are stupidly messing up most of the world.

    What makes you think we require and expect accolades for being an example of freedom. We would be totally satisfied not to be attacked, scorned and denigrated by the likes of liberal Canadians and Europeans.

  7. … because they, like all human beings, crave freedom and prosperity and despise tyranny.

    Thank you for validating a fundamental basis for the neoconservative worldview.

    And, how does assuring that others have freedom force them into our “mold”?

    There are certain fundamental conditions that must exist for freedom to flourish, primarily the embedding of respect for the inailenable rights of the indvidual in the very structure of their society (and government).

    Without that element (among others, but especially that element), a society is vulnerable to having that freedom torn from them, and have itself hijacked to further the ends of a totalitarian.

    In other words, there are some basic requirements for freedom to be sustainable. If assuring those requirements are met is forcing people into a “mold” in your eyes, you need to clean your glasses.

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