T Minus 7 Days and counting

There is one week to go before the US election. No matter what poll you use the race is a statistical dead heat. Electoral Vote.com is now showing Bush as leading in enough states that he would win the election… however he points out some interesting irregularities in polling.

Six new polls in Florida show Kerry leading in 1 poll, Bush leading in 3 polls, and two being exact ties. Excluding the Gallup poll for the moment, the average of the other five polls (Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, Strategic Vision, Survey USA, and Zogby) is Kerry 47% and Bush 48%, a statistical tie. The Gallup poll shows Bush ahead 51% to 42%, giving Bush a lead far outside the margin of error. Could Gallup be right and everyone else wrong?

It really doesn’t matter if Gallop is right or wrong. Even though they show Bush as being solidly ahead in that crucial state… the discrepancy with all the other polls calls their poll into question. How can we know what the real answer is? Well, I’ll give you the real answer.

No one can predict what will happen next Tuesday. No one.

There are simply too many variables.

What if all the newly registered voters decide not to vote after all? What if they do?
What impact will the ex-pat vote have on the election? What about the military?
Will the effort to get out the poor and black/minority vote succeed? This was a huge controversy in Florida in 2000.
What will happen with voting machines? Will there be more hanging chads? Will paperless voting be deemed illegal because there is no way to do a recount?

And finally… the point that I’m sure every pundit out there has in their back of the mind but which has been studiously avoided as a topic of conversation.

What if there is a terrorist attack on or just before the Election?

There was some talk of this back in July. What would the government do. Delay voting day? Who knows.

I’d rather not speculate on whether an attack is imminent or not… but should it happen I think the reaction from the public would be clear and decisive. They would vote in record numbers, and they would vote for Bush.

If you were an Islamic extremist looking for a way to ensure that you have plenty of recruits over the coming years, who would you rather have in the White House?

I know my answer.. what’s yours?

3 thoughts on “T Minus 7 Days and counting”

  1. Chris

    Glad to see that you have this blog. I’ll be interested to see what you say when you’re in the driver seat. πŸ˜‰ and to get more feedback from Canadians who will visit you. I’ve been commenting at Lt Smash with you now for over a year and have grown to really respect your character and thoughfulness even though we don’t see eye-to-eye on almost anything.

    I say the Islamic terrorists would dance in jubilation if kerry gets elected because they assume he will jetison the “Bush Doctrine” while he pursues those old partners in Europe who will, together with Kerry, employ the solutions of the 20th century to the problems of the 21st. If so, and left unabated, these alliances will insure a 50% Islamic European population by 2050. You’ll be an old man by then, but if I’m right, don’t forget who predicted it. I’ll be long gone by then.

    I’ll be baaack…

  2. Good to have you here jane. You are definitely one of my favourite people that I have had the pleasure of discussing topics (arguing) with at Smashs’ site.

    Todays post addresses, I think what you say about 20th century and 21st century responses.

    I think the Iraq war is really the “old way”… I’ll leave that discussion to that thread though, I just didn’t want to leave your first post on my blog hanging! πŸ™‚

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